WASHINGTON (ASP) - The American financial pillars of security - the main functions and values - remains fragile well in 2011, according to a survey news agency Associated Press of eminent economists.

The findings of the study the new economy ASP, which was released Monday, indicates that the economic recovery will move slowly and sporadically this year and next year. As a result, you will have the Fed to keep interest rates close to zero at least until the last quarter of this year, and said three-quarters of the economists.

ASP new survey, which will be every three months, bringing expectations of private sector leadership and economists for companies and academic institutions on a range of indicators, including employment, housing prices and inflation. Among the findings of the first survey of Home:

- The unemployment rate will remain stubbornly high next two years. Will inch down to 9.3 percent by the end of this year and to 8.4 percent by the end of 2011. The rate of 9.7 percent since January. The unemployment rate and when the recession started in December 2007, and 5 percent.

- House prices will remain almost flat for the next two years, even after sinking an average of 30 percent at the national level since the peak in 2006. Economists had expected a rise of this year, gaining 2.3 percent next year.

- The economy will grow 3 percent this year, which is less than usual during the early phase of recovery and the cause of unemployment will remain high. It takes the growth rate of 5 percent for a year to reduce the unemployment rate by one percentage point and 1, and economists say.

And economic growth began again last summer, after 18 months of the recession started. To keep the recovery on track, and soon the Fed will start raising short-term rates in the fourth quarter, 34 economists polled, 44 and the Associated Press.

This will be the continuing low rates help stimulate home sales.


Economists think that the sales of houses that were occupied, the bulk of the market, and mark up to 5.4 million this year, to 5.9 million in 2011. Would represent a continuation of this improvement from lower to 4.9 million in 2008 and be in line with sales in a sound economy.

But there is a catch. It is expected that sales are rising in another part because of an expected wave of foreclosures. This keeps prices from rising - and consumers are spending freely. Rising home equity to stimulate spending during the housing boom in the past decade.

"Our houses are not cash machines longer," says Allen Sinai, chief economist of the economy of the resolution, who participated in the poll ASP.

By keeping interest rates at record levels, the Fed intends to encourage people and businesses to spend more to stimulate recovery. But concern over unemployment and the reluctance or inability to borrow, and curb consumer spending, too, say economists.

"We will not see any irrational exuberance of consumers this year," says Joel Tariff, President of Tariff Economic Advisors, another participant survey.

Like many Americans, Michaela O'Brien, Northampton, Massachusetts, is trying to deal with personal injury from the worst recession since the 1930s. O'Brien, who lost her husband, and Nathaniel Reed (51 years) office two years ago and the editor of the magazine. Since then, I have seen the value of the coupon home. So they spend less.

Gone are the membership of health club, ski passes and a camp for their children. "We cut back on what most people would consider trivial things," says O'Brien.

It gets all over the Toyota Corolla 2000, her husband in the Subaru at the age of 13 years.

"We hope we do not have to buy a car any time soon," says O'Brien, 49, and publicity for their own account. Still, she says they are lucky because they are unable to pay monthly mortgage payments.

Economists say it could take at least until the mid-decade home values usually rise to start again. The greatest strength of many Americans, their homes appreciated an average of 4 percent a year since World War II, economists say.

National home prices have not remained constant while the economy grows, "says Mark Sandi, chief economist at Moody's analysis, which reviewed the data back to 1969. Taking inflation into account, however, home prices were essentially flat throughout the 1980s, and the first half of the 1990s, says Sandi, who also participated in the survey.

Recession wiped out 8.2 million jobs. Sandi and other economists and experts predicted earlier that the unemployment rate, which reached 10.1 percent in October will culminate in a 11 per cent this year. Sandi now expect unemployment to rise again from the current 9.7 percent and reach 10.2 percent by December. This is because a lot of people who have quit looking for work and not calculated on the unemployed will start looking again, and that job creation will remain weak.

And employers began to add jobs in recent times, including 162,000 in March. Economists expect the survey to create additional jobs over the next three months, but not enough to reduce unemployment significantly. Expect significant gains to 200,000 in April, and May, 250,000, 125,000 in June.

There is a need to about 125,000 new jobs each month just to keep pace with population growth and prevent the unemployment rate from rising. To reduce the unemployment rate significantly, employers need to continually add 200,000 to 300,000 per month.

"The labor market is the scar left by the economic shock that we experienced," says Sean Smith, an economics professor at the University of Central Florida, who participated in the survey. "It will be slow to fade."

Ann Dario, 40, of Fairfield, Ohio, and began drilling in savings to pay for home and auto loans after her husband was laid off from a trucking job earlier this year. Dario, who has three children, have also been made to buy new clothes or shoes. Had her son, who graduates from college in June, should move back home if he can not find a job.

"We have only to see really what we are doing and worry about getting through the day" Dario said.